Are Tracking Polls Right?

According to the most recent Rassmussen tracking poll, Obama has only a 1% lead over McCain among likely voters nationwide. However, in the latest Gallup Daily Tracking poll, Obama's lead is 6%. So which poll is telling the truth? Perhaps all of them!

Depending on the demographics of those interviewed, or the political agendas of the groups administering the polls, the polls can be as different as night and day, even on the same subject.

Among the many larger polls, Reuters, Zogby, USA Today/Gallup, etc. Obama is enjoying an average lead of 2.9%.

However, these polls tell us less about the candidates than they do about the polls themselves. And that is that you cannot trust them!


I mean, how is it that there is a 5% difference between these two respected and trusted polls? How is it that according to many polls, our nation is damn near 50-50 on just about every issue? Or are we?

What I've begun to notice is that Americans agree on just about 90% of the issues. It's that small percentage of issues, abortion, gun rights, etc, that is so incredibly drastic. Not only so, but the polarization of politics in America is such that the dual party system causes many to focus on only those issues the parties want you to focus on as differences, tossing a coin as to which side is most passionate about them and decide to show up to the polls and vote on election day. For in fact, the reality is that yes there are Republican women who get abortions, and yes there are Democrats who own guns and are passionate about the 2nd Amendment.

However, none of this answers the question as to why the presidential polls are so close. I assume they are not. What we've seen this year alone is a record registration drive. More people have registered to vote for this election than any other time in history. An increase in voter registration has historically benefitted Democrats. Yet, these new voters are not those taking these polls. Taking the polls are seasoned voters, Democrats and Republicans who watch CNN, Fox, MSNBC, regularly, or are online enough to take the polls.

This is a purpose driven election. More people are passionate about change, any change, that they feel they have a deep connection to the process this time around. Probably for the first time in history also, Women and African Americans feel as though, yes, they can make a difference. And maybe they will, even if the polls show they won't.