Monday, February 04, 2008

Edwards' Camp Joining Obama?

I confess that I'm stealing this graph from Brian Beutler's page, and in fact, I'm copying the comment I left for him.

COE-national.gif

The point of this chart was to show that since Edward quit the race, Obama has seen a significant spike in support, which may or may not be proof that the Edwards' camp is now joining Obama.
However, aside from proving that a "significant majority of erstwhile Edwards supporters are now in Obama's camp," as Beutler puts it, this poll does nothing to suggest any real "significant" data. As we saw in Iowa and New Hampshire, it's anyone's guess as to who is leading, and you know how unreliable polls are during primaries.

What I assume will happen is that most of America will vote the way of Nevada and Florida, as Hillary enjoys much of the White/Hispanic vote. What traditionally happens, and is truly an American travesty, is that Blacks usually don't show up to vote. I think Hillary knows this all too well. So does Bill, though he correctly predicted that in S.C. Barack would enjoy the success of a Democratic base that is well over 50% Black. What happened immediately after Barack won S.C. and should have had the momentum going into Florida? Hillary won.

Here in California however, Hillary is the talk of the town and Obama is a promising running mate.

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