There has been a lot of talk lately about the Bradley Effect, named after Tom Bradley who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite having a large poll lead heading into election day. The term refers to the trend of non-African American voters who tell pollsters they are undecided or likely to vote for an African American candidate, but when election day comes, they vote for the white candidate. I'm sure Obama's campaign has some concern this might happen, as was the case in the New Hampshire primary earlier this year when Hillary won despite Obama's lead in the polls. In fact, here's what Obama said about that this morning at a fundraiser:
For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky and think this is all set, I just say one word. I guess it’s two words for you: New Hampshire. You know, I’ve been in these positions before where we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked. And so that’s another good lesson that Hillary Clinton taught me.
Another concern for the Obama campaign is that if the polls swing wildly in favor of Obama, I'm talking a 16% lead, it is possible some of his supporters will not show up to the polls or turn away if the lines are too long, assuming that Obama has the election in the bag.
However, this phenomenon could also have the adverse effect on McCain? I'll call it the McCain Effect, referring to the possibility that white voters, who would not openly endorse a black candidate, will vote for that candidate once they are inside the privacy of the poll booth. Racism could take a back seat to a poor economy and high unemployment. Along with this effect comes the possibility that McCain supporters, who see a large Obama lead as nearly impossible to overcome, will simply stay home and not vote.
Currently, Obama is sitting on an average lead of 6.9% according to
Real Clear Politics polling data whereby they have reviewed 13 leading poll groups, from the Rasmussen to the USA Today Gallup, and averaged their results. Though the Obama camp would like to see that lead about 2 percentage points higher going into election day, they have stopped well short of trying to run up the numbers or boast of a large lead in an effort to avoid inaction on the part of his supporters.
